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Abstract


Predicting Currency Crises: How do Indicators Differ According to Crisis Definition?

The focus of this paper is currency crisis, particularly the evaluation of the models that attempt to forecast currency crisis. Here, the aim is to investigate the impacts of definition differences on Early Warning Systems. In order to show that significances of the crisis indicators are dependent to crisis definitions of the models, the significant variables for the models that are constructed with the depreciation based definition of Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and Exchange Market Pressure Index based definition of Eichengreen et al. (1996) are separately identified. The results of the estimations of the models that are constructed with these different approaches have shown that, different definition methods identify different sets of variables as crisis indicators. 



Keywords
Currency Crisis, Early Warning System, Probability Threshold, Crisis Prediction



Kaynakça

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